What drives population ageing? A cointegration analysis

Abstract While “classical” demography imputes population ageing to low fertility, a recent “revisionist” line of thinking signals the emergence “from top” (i.e., due mortality), starting slightly after World War II. We join this debate proving that, in long run, mortality affects age structure, and therefore also ageing, more than customarily believed. With data taken from Human Mortality Database on eight populations located Europe, North America Oceania, for as far back possible (up 1820 some cases), applying cointegration analysis, we show that most historical change observed proportions young, adult old people these countries can be derived solely changes survival, ignoring fertility migration.